Simon Kuper and Stefan Syzmanski titled the American version of their new book Soccernomics (review is here), but their title for the release in the UK is Why England Lose.  In the book, Kuper and Syzmanski identified the US as a rising power in soccer and England as a permanent disappointment to their rabid fans.  With all the caveats that their analysis is designed to look at trends over time and not the outcome of one game, the June 12 match-up between the US and England in South Africa will be a mini-test case for their theory.

Kuper and Syzmanski believe that national team greatness is based on three factors – wealth, size and experience.  For purposes of this argument, England and the US are equally as wealthy.  The soccer playing male population over the age of 12 is probably a little larger in England, but the US is catching up fast and will probably surpass them any moment now.  However, it is in experience where, according to Kuper and Syzmanski, the US is outgunning England.

Kuper and Syzmanski define experience as the collective different types of soccer under which a team and its coaches have played.  For example, one of the main reasons for Brazil’s success, according to Kuper and Syzmanski, is that their players have played in a large variety of leagues all over Europe.  The Brazilian team is full of players who play in the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, and other great leagues in Europe.  When he was considered the best player in the world, Ronaldo was a one man soccer travel guide.  He had done a stint in Holland (PSV), two tours of Spain (Barca and Real Madrid) and two tours of Italy (Inter and AC Milan).  By experiencing these different leagues, and learning how to master them, Ronaldo made himself unstoppable.

Conversely, Kuper and Syzmanski believe that England always disappoints because the English players only master how to succeed in England.  English players rarely travel across the channel to gain experience anywhere else.  They play for English clubs, usually under English managers, against English opponents, and learn only how to beat other English teams.  Unfortunately, when it comes time to go to the World Cup or the Euro tournament, the team that they are best suited to beat (England) is the one team they will never oppose.  It is for this reason that England has not reached the final of a major tournament in over 40 years, and during that time did not qualify for either a Euro or World Cup Finals seven times.

If you project out the most likely team to line up against the US in South Africa, you see this problem in spades.  My projection of the starters and reserves England will field next June is a team that not only plays all its club soccer in England – it does not have a single player who has ever played for a non-English club team.  The only country in the World Cup Finals that can match England’s insularity is North Korea.

English Starters (Club Team Country)

• David James – England
• Ashley Cole – England
• Rio Ferdinand – England
• John Terry – England
• Glen Johnson – England
• Aaron Lennon – England

• Frank Lampard – England
• Steven Gerrard – England
• Joe Cole – England
• Wayne Rooney – England
• Jermaine Defoe – England

English Reserves (Club Team Country)

• Paul Robinson – England
• Wayne Bridge – England
• Mathew Upson – England
• Theo Walcott – England
• Gareth Barry – England
• Michael Carrick – England
• Darren Bent – England

Conversely, the US team is a tribute to diversity.  In my projected starting XI, nine different nations are represented in the players’ club history.  Add in the reserves, and you are adding in another two countries.

US Starters (Club Team Country)

• Tim Howard – US/England
• Jonathan Spector – England
• Oguchi Onyewu – Belgium/Italy
• Jay DeMerit – England
• Carlos Bocanegra – US/England/France
• Landon Donovan – Germany/US
• Michael Bradley – US/Holland/Germany
• Benny Feilhaber – Germany/England/Denmark
• Stuart Holden – US
• Clint Dempsey – US/England
• Jozy Altidore – US/Spain/England

US Reserves (Club Team Country)

• Brad Guzon – US/England
• Steve Cherundelo – Germany
• Jermaine Jones – Germany
• Fernando Torres – Mexico
• Maurice Edu – US/Scotland
• Robbie Findley – US
• Conor Casey – Germany/US

With Holden and possibly Donovan set to go to Europe in the January transfer window, this diversity of experience will continue.  With the US learning under different systems, playing against different types of players, and refining different skill sets, they are more apt to absorb the challenges of international tournament like the World Cup.

Does this mean the US will win the game on June 12?  There is no crystal ball for that.  The only statistical theory that Kuper and Syzmanski could say about that game is that the team that scores the most goals will come out ahead.  However, according to Kuper and Syzmanski, the US is coming on fast and England is a stagnant, creaking soccer power.  Over time, if this trend continues, the US will certainly overtake England on the world stage.  The question is whether that Rubicon is crossed on June 12 in Rustenberg or sometime a little further down the road.

Fans of the English Premier League need little reassurance that the English top flight consistently provides excitement and interest that is matched by no other domestic league.  Any dissenters or doubters just had to tune into some EPL coverage over the weekend to be rewarded with a full slate of action packed games which, in several instances, featured late game drama that had considerable impact, particularly at the top of the table. 

A quick review of the Saturday timeline:

(Note the match between Hull and Arsenal was the late game but the goals have been included in the timeline as it is based on the 90 minute game clock of the Saturday action)

4 mins:  WBA take the lead against Middlesbrough courtesy of Chris Brunt to get them on their way.
11 mins:  Danny Collins scores for Sunderland at home to in-form Villa.
30 mins:  Emmanuel Adebayor gives a rejuvenated looking Gunners side the lead at the KC.

HT:  All other games goalless which meant Man Unt were being held at Bolton and Chelsea were tied at home to Stoke.

52 mins:  Pablo Zabaleta scores for Man City at home against Wigan to relieve a little of the Eastlands pressure.
54 mins:  Richard Dunne gets sent off making the task that much harder for City.
54 mins:  Robert Koren adds to Gareth Southgate’s problems as WBA take a 2-0 lead.
60 mins:  James Milner pulls Villa level at the Stadium of Light.
60 mins:  Rory Delap gets in behind the Chelsea defense and Stoke, yet to win away this season, take the lead at the Bridge.

61 mins:  Benny McCarthy scores from the spot and Blackburn grab the advantage against Big Sam’s ex-team.
62 mins:  From bad to worse at the Hawthorns for ‘Boro as Didier Digard sees red.
65 mins:  After being denied a penalty shout, Hull equalize through Daniel Cousin and Arsenal appear to be on the back foot.
66 mins:  Jason Roberts doubles Blackburn’s lead against Newcastle.
67 mins:  Koren gets his second and Brom’s third, and Boro’ are well beaten.
72 mins:  Villa star Ashley Young is sent off with the match still locked at one each.
80 mins:  Gareth Barry scores from the spot and short-handed Villa grab the lead.

82 mins:  Arsenal get back in front at Hull through Samir Nasri as they look to avenge their defeat at The Emirates.

 
83 mins:  Nicky Butt gets his orders at Ewood Park ending any unlikely Newcastle comeback.
86 mins:  Roberts gets another and Big Sam’s vengeance is complete.
86 mins:  Nicklas Bendtner finishes a sweeping Arsenal attack and there’s no way back for Hull.
88 mins:  Juliano Belletti, minutes after fluffing a free-kick opportunity, nods in an equalizer and Phil S. breathes a huge sigh of relief.

90 mins:  Dimitar Berbatov heads in a last gasp winner for the defending champs and they are back on top of the table.

90 mins:  Frank Lampard hits a ferocious drive and, despite a valiant effort, Stoke will leave the capital empty handed.

Seven goals in the last 10 minutes and all four of the top five teams that were in action left it late before securing victory.  The strikes by Berbatov and Lampard, though similar in terms of the manner in which they secured the points, appeared to have somewhat different ratifications.  United’s goal was reminiscent of typical title contending squads in securing a game that they were expected to win.  In contrast, Lampard’s late score brought massive relief to both the Chelsea faithful and Phil Scolari alike.  Some of the home fans were headed for the local even before Belletti equalized assuming that Stoke had secured their first away victory of the season at their expense, as the Blues had appeared to be out of ideas.  But, the team continued to battle and after the comeback the manner in which Lampard and his mates headed to the bench to celebrate with Big Phil seemed to be a direct statement to dispel recent reports that the relationship between Scolari and his players had soured.

This past weekend was another example of the ongoing excitement and drama that can be found around the English Premier League on any given week, even during the grinding winter months of the fixture list. This appears to be more evident in the 2008-09 season as the league is packed tighter than it has ever been this late into the calendar. 

Saturday’s action was followed by an intriguing matchup at White Hart Lane on Sunday as Harry welcomed his former club but watched in frustration as Pompey earned a deserved point.  West Ham continued their recent revival as they dispatched Fulham 3-1 behind an inspired performance by Carlton Cole; and the first of two Merseyside derbies in the space of a week is still to come.  Bring on the drama, and as always feel free to comment and record your thoughts on the weekend action.  Cheers!