EPL Talk » Germany

US vs England – A Soccernomics Analysis

Eric Altshule — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 10:00:16 +0000

Simon Kuper and Stefan Syzmanski titled the American version of their new book Soccernomics (review is here), but their title for the release in the UK is Why England Lose. In the book, Kuper and Syzmanski identified the US as a rising power in soccer and England as a permanent disappointment to their rabid fans. With all the caveats that their analysis is designed to look at trends over time and not the outcome of one game, the June 12 match-up between the US and England in South Africa will be a mini-test case for their theory.

Kuper and Syzmanski believe that national team greatness is based on three factors – wealth, size and experience. For purposes of this argument, England and the US are equally as wealthy. The soccer playing male population over the age of 12 is probably a little larger in England, but the US is catching up fast and will probably surpass them any moment now. However, it is in experience where, according to Kuper and Syzmanski, the US is outgunning England.

Kuper and Syzmanski define experience as the collective different types of soccer under which a team and its coaches have played. For example, one of the main reasons for Brazil’s success, according to Kuper and Syzmanski, is that their players have played in a large variety of leagues all over Europe. The Brazilian team is full of players who play in the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, and other great leagues in Europe. When he was considered the best player in the world, Ronaldo was a one man soccer travel guide. He had done a stint in Holland (PSV), two tours of Spain (Barca and Real Madrid) and two tours of Italy (Inter and AC Milan). By experiencing these different leagues, and learning how to master them, Ronaldo made himself unstoppable.

Conversely, Kuper and Syzmanski believe that England always disappoints because the English players only master how to succeed in England. English players rarely travel across the channel to gain experience anywhere else. They play for English clubs, usually under English managers, against English opponents, and learn only how to beat other English teams. Unfortunately, when it comes time to go to the World Cup or the Euro tournament, the team that they are best suited to beat (England) is the one team they will never oppose. It is for this reason that England has not reached the final of a major tournament in over 40 years, and during that time did not qualify for either a Euro or World Cup Finals seven times.

If you project out the most likely team to line up against the US in South Africa, you see this problem in spades. My projection of the starters and reserves England will field next June is a team that not only plays all its club soccer in England – it does not have a single player who has ever played for a non-English club team. The only country in the World Cup Finals that can match England’s insularity is North Korea.

English Starters (Club Team Country)

David James – England
Ashley Cole – England
Rio Ferdinand – England
John Terry – England
Glen Johnson – England
Aaron Lennon – England

Frank Lampard – England
Steven Gerrard – England
Joe Cole – England
Wayne Rooney – England
Jermaine Defoe – England

English Reserves (Club Team Country)

Paul Robinson – England
Wayne Bridge – England
Mathew Upson – England
Theo Walcott – England
Gareth Barry – England
Michael Carrick – England
Darren Bent – England

Conversely, the US team is a tribute to diversity. In my projected starting XI, nine different nations are represented in the players’ club history. Add in the reserves, and you are adding in another two countries.

US Starters (Club Team Country)

Tim Howard – US/England
Jonathan Spector – England
Oguchi Onyewu – Belgium/Italy
Jay DeMerit – England
Carlos Bocanegra – US/England/France
Landon Donovan – Germany/US
Michael Bradley – US/Holland/Germany
Benny Feilhaber – Germany/England/Denmark
Stuart Holden – US
Clint Dempsey – US/England
Jozy Altidore – US/Spain/England

US Reserves (Club Team Country)

Brad Guzon – US/England
Steve Cherundelo – Germany
Jermaine Jones – Germany
Fernando Torres – Mexico
Maurice Edu – US/Scotland
Robbie Findley – US
Conor Casey – Germany/US

With Holden and possibly Donovan set to go to Europe in the January transfer window, this diversity of experience will continue. With the US learning under different systems, playing against different types of players, and refining different skill sets, they are more apt to absorb the challenges of international tournament like the World Cup.

Does this mean the US will win the game on June 12? There is no crystal ball for that. The only statistical theory that Kuper and Syzmanski could say about that game is that the team that scores the most goals will come out ahead. However, according to Kuper and Syzmanski, the US is coming on fast and England is a stagnant, creaking soccer power. Over time, if this trend continues, the US will certainly overtake England on the world stage. The question is whether that Rubicon is crossed on June 12 in Rustenberg or sometime a little further down the road.

England On The Brink Of 2010 World Cup

Simon Tanton — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 12:40:55 +0000

South Africa 2010

Almost twenty years ago England went to Poland knowing that a draw would qualify them for Italia 90. A backs-to-the wall performance and the magnificence of Peter Shilton ensured they had their point and the team then went onto reach the semi-finals of the tournament that arguably saved English football from itself and ultimately elevated it to today’s dizzy heights.

Were it not for the crossbar however that Poland hit in the last minute with the superlative Shilton well beaten, England would have lost that night and not have qualified for Italia 90. There would have been no glorious semi-final defeat, no tears from Gazza and the EPL might never have been born. Yet lady luck was smiling on England that night and here we are some 20 years on with England once again on the brink of the finals of the World Cup. Like Bobby Robson’s team, England remain unbeaten throughout their qualifying campaign but there is unlikely to be a repeat of that night in Chorzow where England had to get a result as their campaign for South Africa draws to a close.

Should England fail on Wednesday they have a second and a third stab at qualification against the Ukraine and Belarus respectively in October although in all likelihood their passage to South Africa next summer will be sealed with those two games to spare.

There’s something about a do-or-die game however that somehow makes it all seem worthwhile. All those weekends where the EPL comes to a grinding halt and all eyes are fixed firmly on the England camp seem to frustrate fans and managers alike but when it all comes down to one night, it serves up a starter that wets our appetite for the main course of the Finals themselves next summer.

In years’ gone by, as well as the nail-biter in Poland, England supporters have endured the catastrophe in Rotterdam in 1993, the miracle of Rome in 1997, David Beckhams finest hour in 2001 although last time around in 2005 it was something of a damp squib as Sven’s men actually qualified for Germany on the back of a Dutch victory over the Czech Republic.

Of course the misery of failing to qualify for Euro 2008 is still relatively fresh in people’s minds and whilst you could argue that England have come on in leaps and bounds since that horror show in 2007 – ironically also against Wednesday’s opponents Croatia – it could be argued that international football is steadily falling down the interest radar. Of course everyone loves the World Up but the whole qualification process? It just seems inconvenient particularly to fans of the Bloated Four although it must be said but when it is their teams that are pretty much decimated by international call ups you can maybe see their point.
There was a time when England games seemed to really matter and they would capture the imagination of the English public in as much as they seemed to unite the football world but now they seem nothing more than a little sideshow than needs to be gotten out of the way before everyone can back to the real deal of the EPL.

With two huge games coming up on September 12th (Man City v Arsenal; Spurs v Man Utd) when the league resumes it is sometimes hard to get too excited about the international scene but come next summer no doubt even England’s biggest critics will be on the bandwagon although it is fair to say that the EPL has become the be all and end all of football in England and sadly that seems to include international football as well.

As far as Capello is concerned, well all he has done really is take the same group of players and taught them how to win again in a not too dissimilar way that one of his predecessors Sven Goran Erickson had England playing. It’s not pretty but it is effective – albeit against mediocre opposition it must be said. Indeed, perhaps one of the biggest reasons for England’s recent winning streak is not necessarily the new manager but the standard of opposition in their group. You can only beat what’s in front of you and England has obviously done that but without really making anyone sit up and take notice. There’s still questions about the left side of midfield, there’s still doubts about Gerrard and Lampard in the same team and whilst those issues have been part and parcel of the England set up for years it seems there’s now doubts about just who is the first choice goalkeeper and just who should partner Rooney up front if there is to be a partner for him at all.

The warm up game against Slovania on Saturday will merely be a taster for the big event on Wednesday with Capello hoping above all to avoid any injuries to his squad so he may play his first team. Looking at the team that faced Poland in 1989 what Capello wouldn’t give for the likes of Shilton, Bryan Robson and Gary Lineker to be lining up for him. Indeed it makes the mouth water doesn’t it? Gerrard and Robson together in the middle of the park? Rooney and Lineker up front? Maybe England would even progress beyond the Quarter Final stage and maybe even…nah, it wouldn’t be the same without a heartbreaking penalty shootout loss would it?

Poland 0-0 England
11 October,1989
Stadion Slaski, Chorzow

Peter Shilton [Derby County]
Gary Stevens [Glasgow Rangers]
Stuart Pearce [Nottingham Forest]
Desmond Walker [Nottingham Forest]
Terence Butcher [Glasgow Rangers]
David Rocastle [Arsenal]
Bryan Robson [Manchester United]
Stephen McMahon [Liverpool]
Christopher Waddle [Marseille]
Peter Beardsley [Liverpool]
Gary Lineker [Tottenham Hotspur]

England Under 21’s Should Be Proud Win Or Lose Tonight

Paul Bestall — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 17:51:48 +0000

Fresh from giving England fans palpitations after Fridays semi-final win against host nation Sweden, England’s young lions have a chance to win some silverware for the junior lions for the first time since 1993. England Under 18’s triumphed that year, riding a week long wave of growing optimism and support to beat Turkey 1-0 in front of 25,000 fans in Nottingham. Tonight’s Under-21 final pits England against its greatest rivals of the modern era, Germany, in a repeat of the final Group A game.

England of course, will be missing three players. Joe Hart has failed in an appeal to get his second booking recinded after shadow boxing one of the Swedish players in the penalty shoot out. Agbonlahor also picked up a second booking and Campbell was sent off in extra time after receiving two bookings. Normally, that would be a big blow for any side, but with Theo Walcott desperate to finally get his tournament going, and a straight choice between Scott Loach or the very highly rated Joe Lewis, Pearce has the talent to fill the gaps.

It also seems to put a bit of a mockery on the claims that English youth football is suffering due to the influx of foriegn players. Pearce has led this side to the semi finals of the last two tournaments, with players such as Mark Noble, Gabriel Agbonlahor, James Milner and Theo Walcott at his disposal. These are not just players desperately thrown in to fill gaps, these are quality players, with plenty of Premiership experience between them.

Can they win tonight? Of course they can, the reserve team drew with the German side a week ago, so they will have not given anything away to their opponents. I’ve also seen that the Germans have changed their kit to red tonight to give them a psychological advantage which oddly means they’ve completely forgotten about Englands 5-1 destruction of Germany in Munich in September 2001. That night, the Senior side tried the same trick to stop England wearing red, but ultimately it blew up in their faces.

Of course the crucial thing here is not to put too much pressure on the side and the players if they can win tonight. England Under 21’s had a golden period in the early 1980’s, winning the competition twice in a row, 1982 and 1984. Those players perhaps didn’t move onwards as much apart from Trevor Steven and Mark Hateley perhaps but Howard Gayle, Paul Walsh and Mel Sterland never really made the step up.

There’s no doubt that the England Under 21’s side have shown that their are some positives for the future of English football, despite the doomongers and pessimists that worry constantly about the lack of English players at the Big 4. Of course we’d like to see more English talent given a chance, but Manchester United have always championed English talent, Liverpool have 2 or 3 outstanding prospects coming through also.

Pearce will be looking to bring the trophy home tonight from Malmo and improve his fast rising reputation in the England set up. His passion and pride for his country can never be questioned and before the team leave the dressing rooms tonight, Pearce will instill them just what winning this tournament will mean for these players.

Stewart Downing: The Enigma

Michael Timbury — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 20:21:39 +0000

I’ve wondered for a long time what it is that managers see in Stewart Downing, particularly England managers. Since his first call up in February 2005, Downing has been pretty much been a regular in the England squad, but why? I don’t understand how one player can have gained 22 caps without ever making an impact in any of those games. People criticise the manner in which David Beckham has accrued caps in recent years to tie him level with Bobby Moore but at least he has made an impact for his country at some stage of his career. In his ten minute cameo appearances, David Beckham provides more goal scoring opportunities than Stewart Downing could ever dream of.

For his club, Downing is undeniably a good player but as soon as he puts on an England shirt he seems to lose the ability to take on full backs and get crosses into the box. There is a reason though why Tottenham wanted to buy him. At Premiership level, he scores and creates goals on a regular basis and has one of the best deliveries in the league. Although his form in front of goal hasn’t been as good this season, he is still a class operator down the flanks and can give the best full backs in the world a torrid ninety minutes. He must be exceptional in training as well, why else would Fabio Capello openly say that he has been most impressed by the winger?

Downing has all the natural attributes to be a top player but let’s face it, he only gets into the England squad because he is left footed. It is well publicised that England have always struggled in that position and a naturally left footed winger is hard to come by. But that doesn’t justify continuously playing someone in that position who has had numerous opportunities and never really impressed. Not when Ashley Young is looking on from the bench, or worse, watching at home on his television having been overlooked yet again. From Young’s point of view he must be wondering what more he has to do to get a game for his country.

Granted, Downing had a decent game against Germany last November but one performance in twenty two is just not acceptable. Not when Andorran and Macedonian full backs are marking him out of a game. If Downing was right footed, he wouldn’t get a sniff. He would find himself in the wilderness with the likes of David Bentley. If Downing replicated his ‘Boro form for England then by all means he should be considered but after four years now, each time he has played for England it has become increasingly clear that he just isn’t up to the job. This has been shown up by the manager’s choice to not play him in crucial competitive matches as he is too inconsistent compared to someone like Joe Cole who can be relied upon. But surely his consistent inclusion in the squad is only giving him the false perception that he is producing the standard of performance that is required.

Capello has stated that he only picks players who are playing regularly and more importantly playing well so this would explain why Downing is constantly selected but I for one think it’s time to leave him out for a while. There are other options that haven’t been explored and the only thing that Downing has proved in my opinion is that he is not the answer.

GolTV Acquires TV Rights To 2009 European Under-21 Championship

The Gaffer — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:00:47 +0000

GolTV has acquired the U.S. TV rights to the 2009 European under-21 Championship, scheduled for June 15-29 in Sweden.

The eight countries competing in the tournament will be England, Italy, Serbia, Germany, Finland, Belarus, Spain and Sweden. The draw for the tournament takes place on December 3rd.

For connoiseurs of the beautiful game, the European Under-21 Championship will be an excellent opportunity to watch some of the up-and-coming players in action.

Coached by Stuart Pearce, England will favor its chances of doing well in the tournament especially with a talent pool that includes Aston Villa’s Gabriel Agbonlahor and James Milnar, Chelsea’s Michael Mancienne (who has been called up for today’s game against Germany), Tottenham’s Jamie O’Hara, Manchester City’s Joe Hart, West Ham United’s Mark Noble and many more.

Liverpool Does the Right Thing: German Clubs Do Not

Kartik Krishnaiyer — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 05:20:15 +0000

On the European Continent and on the British Isles the view of the Olympic football Tournament is completely different than in the rest of the world. In Europe the tournament is seen as more of a nuisance than anything, while among those in the Western Hemisphere and in Africa it is seen as big deal.

Nigeria and Cameroon are both recent champions of the event, and after both nations achieved their Gold Medals, mass celebrations consumed the nation. Mexico fired its national coach, the biggest hero in Mexican football history Hugo Sanchez because he failed to qualify the team for the Olympics, despite a month earlier, achieving the nation’s first result on American soil against the arch rival United States in nine years. Brazil’s Dunga has survived a tumultuous World Cup qualifying campaign thus far, because he is seen as the man to bring home an Olympic Gold Medal, and Brazil did not want to change coaches so soon before the Olympics.

The United States puts more emphasis on Olympic Football than any tournament outside of the World Cup, and because for years the Olympics themselves were used as a propaganda tool by the USA, I’ve heard debate within American soccer circles as to whether or not winning the Olympic Gold Medal would actually do more for the game domestically than winning the World Cup. While I do not subscribe to this view in the least bit, it simply demonstrates how important the Olympic tournament is considered to many people. In fact, one of the best forwards then United States has ever produced, Brian McBride has come out of international retirement just for this event, because of its importance to US Soccer. Tim Vickery, who understands Latin Football better than just about any European writer, explains why this event is so important to so many in an outstanding piece.

But European clubs for the most part are more annoyed and bothered by this event than they are interested in it. Liverpool is losing more than just about any club on the planet. Ryan Babel will be featuring for Holland, Javier Mascherano for Argentina, and Lucas for Brazil. This puts the Reds behind the eight ball in the first few weeks of the Premier League season. Rafa Benetiz isn’t happy about it, but unlike some of the clubs in Germany, Liverpool understands that FIFA’s declaration that all selected U-23 players must be released is to be honored. But even more admirable is that Liverpool has released Mascherano, who is an overage player and whose release Liverpool legally could have prevented.

Chelsea has released Solomon Kalou. Blackburn has released Ryan Nelson (an overage player) and Manchester United has allowed Anderson to join Brazil. However two German clubs are refusing to release their Brazilian players: Werder Bremen with Diego, perhaps the best player in the Bundesliga last season, and Schalke with Rafinha. Both players left their clubs this week without permission to join Brazil’s training. This stands in contrast not only to the example set by the three aforementioned English clubs, but by AC Milan who just signed Ronaldinho and have made him the center of a major worldwide marketing campaign. Despite this, Milan has allowed Ronaldinho to join Brazil’s squad, perhaps because Italian clubs are more used to this situation than other European clubs: Italy has competed in more Olympic Football tournaments than any other nation. (Believe it or not, the United States has qualified for the second most Olympic Football tournaments, and would tied with Italy for the most appearances had the US not barely missed qualification for the 2004 tournament).

What’s even more disturbing are the lengths the two German clubs are going to in order to try and stop players from exercising their free will and representing their country. The Court of Arbitration for Sport will hear a case being brought before it by the clubs and backed by the European Club Association to block U-23 players from joining their national teams in the Olympics. Werder Bremen has also refused to allow Dusko Tosic of Serbia to join his team and has reportedly confiscated his passport.

Olympic football is very important to many across the globe. As European clubs become more and more global in both their squad makeup and in their marketing they must learn to bend on these sorts of issues. Liverpool to their credit has reluctantly complied as they continue to try and build their global brand. The German clubs, already in a league whose international stature is waning have made a fatal mistake in the court of international football public opinion with their unreasonable stand. Though many in Europe whose focus is the club game and European tournaments may applaud Schalke and Bremen for their stands, the Bundesliga is no doubt soon to take a major beating in perception and respect level in Latin America.

While Olympic Football takes place outside the regular FIFA blackout windows, clubs in Europe must understand the importance of this event and also assume the risk for signing high profile internationals. Liverpool, as a more popular and successful club from an international standpoint clearly understands this better than Werder Breman and Schalke 04. Perhaps this helps to explain why the Premier League is head and shoulders above the Bundesliga these days when it comes to international recognition and popularity.

Google Celebrates Euro 2008 With Homepage Doodle

The Gaffer — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 12:54:33 +0000

Google is getting into the mood for today’s Euro 2008 final by showing a soccer doodle on its homepages in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. As of writing, Google Spain’s homepage didn’t feature the image.

German seventeen year old Mai Dao Ngoc drew the winning picture.

ESPN’s Euro 2008 Dream Goes According To Plan

The Gaffer — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 02:30:59 +0000

ESPN and ABC’s dreams have come true. Sunday’s Euro 2008 final between Germany and Spain is a far better proposition for the Disney owned TV networks than Turkey against Russia would have been. With plenty of German Americans living in the United States as well as a massive hispanic population, TV ratings should be high.

Overall, the amount of attention that ESPN has given to Euro 2008 this summer has far exceeded my expectations. The games seem to be a centerpiece of the network’s coverage and has even been the lead story on some of ESPN’s other sports programs.

The work that ESPN has done this summer is to be applauded. Everything from the TV commercials to the broadcast of a different European Championship final each night leading up to the tournament, as well as the way that ESPN has been cross-promoting the tournament on its own shows, has been fantastic.

Inside the studio, the only mistake the network made was hiring Julie Foudy. While she is exuberant on the set, she adds little to no worthy analysis. As the weeks have passed by, she has grown on me, but ESPN would have done better to hire someone who really knows his or her world football and has more passion than Foudy. That person is Ray Hudson.

What struck me this week is that there really isn’t a TV network that football fans love globally. In the UK, many viewers despise the BBC, ITV and Sky Sports. In the United States, Fox Soccer Channel often gets ridiculed. But with ESPN, they have a unique opportunity to produce high quality soccer coverage. They’re experts at production. Plus they have a soccer expert in Derek Rae as well as a hired hand such as Andy Gray.

Derek Rae, especially, has been a joy to listen to this summer. His level of football commentating as well as his knowledge of the game, the statistics and his impeccable gift of knowing how to pronounce difficult words and speak other languages puts him into the top tier of football commentators. While Andy Gray seems to talk down to Adrian Healey a little bit during matches, Gray and Rae strike up a dynamite partnership. Both Scots are still trying to get used to working with each other, but you can tell that Gray has a lot of respect for his fellow countryman.

The big question is where does ESPN go from here? The next World Cup in 2010 still seems far away. The obvious choice would be for ESPN to enter into the bidding later this year against Setanta Sports and Fox Soccer Channel for the rights to show the English Premier League in the United States. FSC’s current contract with the Premier League runs until 2010.

Euro 2008 Semi-Final Plagued By 17 Minutes Of TV Transmission Issues

The Gaffer — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 02:46:43 +0000

Football fans around the world must have cursing their TV sets Wednesday night when the TV transmission was interrupted three separate times during key moments in the thrilling Euro 2008 semi-final between Germany and Turkey.

UEFA is investigating the situation to find out what happened, but it appears that a thunderstorm is blamed for the interruptions. Neverthless, the damage has already been done. UEFA will have to do everything it can to prevent similar embarrassing incidents from happening in the future.

While the interruptions in transmission appeared to happen around the world, this is how the technical difficulties occurred while watching the game on ESPN in the United States:

At minute 57:15, the screen went black. ESPN quickly changed the video to show live coverage of the Fan Zone in Basel where mostly German fans congregated. ESPN commentator Derek Rae handled the situation very calmly and professionally before handing the reins back to Rece Davis in the ESPN studio. Davis and pundits Julie Foudy and Tommy Smyth then proceeded to go through the motions and repeat everything they had said almost verbatim from the half-time show including showing the same video footage.
After almost seven minutes without coverage, the live game feed on ESPN returned at minute 64:10.
At minute 76:26, ESPN lost the live TV feed again. This was at a crucial moment in the game and it was unfortunate that viewers around the world missed Miroslav Klose’s goal for Germany in the 79th minute to make it 2-1. The bad fortune for ESPN (and broadcasters around the world) was compounded when the interruption in TV feeds missed Turkey’s equalizer in the 86th minute. When ESPN’s live feed returned, at minute 86:34, viewers saw the Turks celebrating Senturk’s goal.
ESPN was lucky with the third and final goal for Germany when Philip Lahm scored in the 90th minute. At minute 90:32, ESPN lost the TV feed yet again but returned shortly afterwards to show that the game had just finished with scenes of the German players and fans celebrating.

Overall, ESPN was unable to show more than 17 minutes of live TV football coverage because of the technical problems suffered by UEFA. ESPN and broadcasters worldwide were terribly fortunate that the winning goal of the match was shown. If that one had gone in the net during the timespan when UEFA had lost the TV transmission, there would have been riots in the streets.

Please share your stories about what happened and how your TV network handled the technical difficulties by clicking the comments link below.

Euro 2008 Poll: Who Will Be The Finalists?

The Gaffer — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 13:37:34 +0000